The Art of the Almost-Deal: Trump's Track Record Meets Nuclear Brinkmanship

90 Days, 2 Frameworks, and a War: The Real Story Behind Trump's Negotiation Claims

Remember when Donald Trump promised to broker "90 deals in 90 days" after taking office in January 2025? Well, we're now in June, and the scorecard is... let's call it "interesting." While Trump has been touting his dealmaking prowess, Iran and Israel are literally bombing each other's nuclear facilities. It's a perfect case study in how political promises collide with messy reality.

The Numbers Don't Lie (But Politicians Do)

Let's start with the math. Trump's big trade promise? 90 deals in 90 days. The actual result by mid- June 2025? Two framework agreements. That's not even 2.5% of what was promised. And these aren't even final deals – they're what diplomats politely call "frameworks," which is basically a fancy way of saying "we agreed to keep talking." The UK deal sets quotas for 100,000 British cars per year at 10% duty and eliminates some aerospace tariffs. Sounds good, right? Except key issues like steel and aluminum quotas are still "in limbo," and the tariffs that prompted this whole thing haven't actually been lifted yet. The China framework is even more telling. It's mostly about setting tariff rates (55% on Chinese imports, 10% on U.S. goods) and getting China to lift curbs on rare-earth minerals. Trump bragged "We made a great deal with China. We're very happy with it," but it's still subject to final approval and missing crucial details. Meanwhile, other countries are apparently getting letters from Trump's team "urging" them to "submit their best offers" by the deadline. Former Trump staffer Marc Short basically called it what it is: "We were promised '90 deals in 90 days.' What we have at this point are 'general frameworks' for the U.K. and China."

From Abraham Accords to Air Raid Sirens

But here's where it gets really interesting. Trump loves to point to his Middle East "successes" – the Abraham Accords that normalized relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco in 2020. These were real diplomatic achievements, no question.The problem? They didn't actually create peace where there was war. As experts noted, none of these countries were fighting Israel to begin with. They just "elevated and formalized relations" that already existed behind the scenes. The core conflicts – Israeli-Palestinian tensions and the Israel-Iran standoff –remained completely unresolved. Fast forward to 2025, and we're watching that unresolved Iran-Israel conflict explode in real time. Iranian missiles are hitting Israeli targets, including near hospitals. Israel is striking Iran's nuclear facilities. Tehran is warning of "irreparable damage" if the U.S. gets involved. Trump is urging civilians to evacuate Tehran while simultaneously predicting Iran will sign a nuclear deal.It's diplomatic whiplash.

The Fordo Problem

Here's the technical reality that makes this crisis so dangerous: Iran's Fordo enrichment facility is buried deep in a mountain about 200 kilometers south of Tehran. Israel doesn't have the military capability to destroy it – that would require America's B-2 stealth bombers carrying "massive ordnance penetrators" (30,000-pound bunker busters). Iran has enriched uranium up to 60% purity. The weapons-grade threshold is 90%. That's not a huge technical jump, which is why everyone's nervous. Israel's position is that they had "no choice" because Iran was accelerating toward building nuclear weapons and negotiations were going nowhere. But here's the thing: U.S. intelligence reports haven't confirmed that Iran is actually building weapons. The International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran is in breach of its non-proliferation obligations, but that's different from saying they're about to produce a bomb.

The Pattern Emerges

Look at the pattern here. Trump promises big ("90 deals," "ultimate peace deals," "historic peace in the Middle East"), delivers partial results, then spins them as total victories. The Abraham Accords were genuinely significant diplomatic achievements, but they didn't solve the region's core conflicts. Now, while Trump is promising more deals and predicting Iranian nuclear agreements, missiles are flying and nuclear facilities are under attack. The "90 deals in 90 days" push follows the same playbook. Create a dramatic deadline, generate headlines, then quietly scale back expectations when reality hits. Markets were actually nervous about Trump's tariff threats, so the 90-day pause was partly an "off-ramp" to calm investors.

What This Actually Means

For American businesses and consumers, this matters because tariffs could snap back on July 8 if no real deals materialize. U.S. manufacturers, farmers, and tech firms are all watching closely. If the deals fall through, we could see supply chain disruptions and price hikes.In the Middle East, the stakes are obviously higher. Israel benefits from U.S. military support and the Abraham Accords relationships. Gulf states want protection from Iran. But Palestinians feel completely bypassed, and Iran is being squeezed by sanctions while building nuclear capabilities. The recent Israel-Iran escalation shows how fragile the region remains. Trump's calls for Iranian surrender and predictions of nuclear deals have shifted wildly in just days, illustrating how volatile this administration's approach really is.

The Lesson Hidden in Plain Sight

Here's the deeper story: complex international relationships can't be reduced to simple dealmaking. Trade negotiations typically take years, not weeks. Regional peace requires addressing deep-rooted conflicts, not just ceremonial signings. Trump's approach treats geopolitics like real estate – find the pressure points, make the big ask,declare victory. Sometimes it works (the Abraham Accords did happen). But when it doesn't work, the consequences can be severe. Like nuclear facilities getting bombed while you're promising peace deals. The real test isn't whether Trump can make deals – it's whether those deals actually solve problems or just create new ones. Right now, we've got framework agreements that might not stick, and a Middle East crisis that definitely is.

The Bottom Line

As we watch Iranian missiles target Israeli hospitals while Trump predicts nuclear agreements, one thing becomes clear: the gap between promise and delivery isn't just about numbers or political spin. When you're dealing with nuclear weapons and regional war, the difference between a real deal and a "framework" can literally be the difference between peace and catastrophe. Trump's defenders will point to the Abraham Accords as proof that his approach works. His critics will point to the current Iran-Israel war as proof that it doesn't. The truth, as usual, is more complicated. What's not complicated is the math: 90 promises, 2 frameworks, and a war that nobody seems to know how to stop.

Lessons Learned & Implications

The real lesson here might be about the difference between transactional diplomacy and transformational peace. Trump's approach excels at making deals between parties who already want to cooperate (like Israel and Gulf states who shared concerns about Iran). But it struggles with conflicts where the parties fundamentally oppose each other's existence. This teaches us that international relations can't always be reduced to business transactions. Sometimes the "art of the deal" meets the reality of ancient hatreds, nuclear weapons, and religious conflicts that don't respond to pressure tactics or deadline diplomacy.The pattern – promise big, deliver partial, spin as victory – works in domestic politics but creates dangerous expectations in international crises. When you're dealing with nuclear weapons, the margin for error is zero.

**Footnote on Bias Examination:**

This analysis draws primarily from mainstream sources including Reuters, BBC, Politico, and The Independent. These outlets may have editorial slants, but they presented largely consistent factual reporting. The sources include both Trump's own statements and skeptical expert analysis. Potential bias exists in the selection of critical quotes and the framing of Trump's claims as "promises vs. reality." Pro-Trump sources might dispute negative characterizations of his achievements. However, the basic facts (2 framework deals vs. 90 promised, ongoing Iran-Israel conflict) are verifiable regardless of political perspective.

**Footnote on Mistake Examination:**

The main analytical risk is conflating different types of diplomatic achievements – trade frameworks vs. peace agreements – which serve different purposes. We've tried to distinguish between Trump's trade agenda and Middle East diplomacy while noting their shared pattern. Another risk is treating early-stage frameworks as failures when they might eventually become substantive agreements. The timeline used (through June 2025) reflects the sources available, but rapid diplomatic changes could alter the analysis. The characterization of the Abraham Accords as "not real peace" reflects expert consensus but might undervalue their strategic significance.

//Peace

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Sources:

• BBC Security Briefing transcripts and reporting

• Reuters reporting on Trump trade negotiations and Middle East developments

• Politico analysis of "90 deals in 90 days" progress

• The Independent coverage of trade deal frameworks

• Iranian news agency reports (via document sources)

• International Atomic Energy Agency statements

• Various diplomatic and military expert analysis

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Major news reports and fact-checks from Reuters

PolitiFact, Politico, The Independent, and other reputable outlets were used.

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PolitiFact | Trump claims he made peace in the Middle East with Abraham Accords. That’s False.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2023/dec/05/donald-trump/trump-claims-he-made-peace-in-the-middle-east-with/

Trump recognizes Jerusalem as Israel's capital, reversing longtime U.S. policy | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/world/trump-recognizes-jerusalem-as-israels-capital-reversing-longtime-us-policy-idUSKBN1DZ053/

Trump's 'peacemaker' pledge takes big hit as Israel strikes Iran | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trumps-peacemaker-pledge-takes-big-hit-israel-strikes-iran-2025-06-13/

The Abraham Accords After Gaza: A Change of Context | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/04/the-abraham-accords-after-gaza-a-change-of-context?lang=en

Trump trade team chases 90 deals in 90 days. Experts say good luck with that | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-trade-team-chases-90-deals-90-days-experts-say-good-luck-with-that-2025-04-12/

Trump wanted ‘90 deals in 90 days.’ Instead, he’s finding wins where he can. - POLITICO

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/12/trump-wanted-90-deals-in-90-days-instead-hes-finding-wins-where-he-can-00403638

The deadline approaches for Trump’s ‘90 deals in 90 days.’ So far he has ‘frameworks’ for two | The Independent

https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-trade-deals-tariff-deadline-b2769655.html

US and UK announce a trade deal, but steel imports unresolved | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-uk-trade-deal-be-completed-very-soon-says-starmer-2025-06-16/

Deal to get US-China trade truce back on track is done, Trump says | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-china-trade-talks-resume-second-day-2025-06-10/

Donald Trump trade deals: 90 deals in 90 days: Donald Trump mocked for begging countries for a trade deal - The Economic Times

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/90-deals-in-90-days-donald-trump-mocked-for-begging-countries-for-a-trade-deal-us-news-donald-trump-news/articleshow/121624135.cms?from=mdr

Trump calls for Iran's 'unconditional surrender' as Israel-Iran air war rages on | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/trump-urges-tehran-evacuation-iran-israel-conflict-enters-fifth-day-2025-06-17/

Trump predicts Iran will sign nuclear deal | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-predicts-iran-will-sign-nuclear-deal-2025-06-16/