Climate Reality Check?
When Winter Storm Meets Presidential Brain Freeze
TL;DR - Breaking It Down
What Happened:
Big winter storm. Trump tweets. Scientists collectively facepalm.
Why It Matters:
Because the President of the United States just demonstrated he doesn’t understand the difference between weather and climate. That’s like not knowing the difference between your checking account balance today and your long-term financial health. One is a snapshot. One is a trend.
The Pattern:
This isn’t new. Trump has been conflating cold weather with “disproving” climate change since at least 2019. The playbook never changes:
Cold snap happens
Question climate science
Policy decisions follow
Repeat
The Consequences:
When the guy with his hand on energy policy doesn’t grasp basic atmospheric science, we get things like:
Killing offshore wind projects (five just shut down)
Pulling back from climate adaptation
Subsidizing oil companies asking for a billion dollars to “drill baby drill”
Zero preparation for climate migration (more on that below)
The Facts, No Spin
On Friday, January 24, 2026, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social:
“Record Cold Wave expected to hit 40 States. Rarely seen anything like it before. Could the Environmental Insurrectionists please explain — WHATEVER HAPPENED TO GLOBAL WARMING???”
Winter Storm Fern is forecast to impact over 230 million Americans with damaging ice, heavy snow, and gusty winds. At least 14 states plus Washington D.C. declared states of emergency. The storm is real. The cold is real. Trump’s understanding of basic meteorology? Not so much.
Meanwhile, the actual science:
2024 was Earth’s warmest year on record, with global temperatures 2.32°F (1.29°C) above the 20th-century average
The ten warmest years since 1850 have all occurred in the past decade
In January 2025, U.S. weather stations with 50+ years of data recorded 45 record lows versus 1,092 record highs
Globally, winter temperatures have increased 1.3°F (0.72°C) since 1995, with the previous two winters being the warmest on record
Climate scientist Daniel Swain at UC Davis put it simply: “Global warming continues and has in fact been progressing at an increased rate in recent years.”
Three-Layer Thinking: What Are We Actually Looking At?
Layer 1: The Surface Narrative (What Everyone Accepts)
“It’s cold, therefore global warming is fake.”
This is the logic of a toddler who thinks the sun disappears at bedtime. Weather is what’s happening outside your window today. Climate is the long-term average pattern across the entire planet. As climate experts explained, “Because climate change is ultimately a longer-term phenomenon, you can have blips around that trend; you can have ups and downs around a longer-term increase in temperature.”
You know what else is “blips”? Your body temperature fluctuates throughout the day. That doesn’t mean you don’t have an average temperature of 98.6°F.
Layer 2: The Institutional Blind Spot (What We’re Missing)
Here’s what makes this actually interesting: Climate change may be making these extreme winter events MORE likely, not less.
The Arctic is warming 3-4 times faster than the global average. This weakens the polar jet stream - a river of fast-moving wind that normally keeps cold Arctic air locked up north. When the jet stream weakens and gets “wavy,” it can allow frigid polar air to dip much further south than normal.
The polar vortex - a spinning mass of cold air high in the atmosphere over the North Pole - is being disrupted more frequently. As one NOAA expert explained: “Warming in this particular region is leading to more disruptions of the polar vortex, which is expected to cause more unusual winter weather around the Northern Hemisphere.”
So Trump is essentially using evidence OF climate change (extreme winter weather) to argue AGAINST climate change. It’s like pointing at your flooded basement and saying “See? I told you we didn’t have a plumbing problem!”
Layer 3: The Reframe (What Question Should We Actually Be Asking?)
Not: “Is it cold, therefore is global warming fake?”
But: “Why is the most powerful person on Earth weaponizing scientific illiteracy for political points while actual humans will pay the price?”
Because here’s the thing that nobody wants to talk about honestly:
The Climate Migration Reality
Projections suggest anywhere from 25 million to 1.2 billion people could become climate migrants by 2050. Let’s take the conservative estimate from the World Bank: 216 million people could move internally within their countries by 2050 due to climate-related changes to water supplies and agricultural livelihoods.
You want to talk about immigration, Mr. President? You think the current situation is bad? Wait until coastal cities are underwater, entire regions become uninhabitable due to heat, and agricultural collapse forces mass movement.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that more than one billion people globally could be exposed to coastal-specific climate hazards by 2050, potentially driving tens to hundreds of millions of people to leave their homes.
How exactly do you think borders are going to work then?
The Absurdist Sketch: A Conversation With Future Trump
Setting: The Oval Office, 2045. Sea level has risen 2 feet. Miami is mostly underwater. President Trump XXII (he cloned himself) sits at his desk.
Aide: “Mr. President, 50 million climate refugees are at the southern border.”
Trump XXII: “Refugees? From where?”
Aide: “Texas, sir. The heat index hit 160°F. The grid failed. People are moving north.”
Trump XXII: “That’s impossible. I ended global warming in 2025 by tweet.”
Aide: “Sir, that’s... not how science works.”
Trump XXII: “Then explain why it’s 75 degrees in Antarctica right now!”
Aide: “That’s... that’s the problem, sir.”
Trump XXII: “FAKE NEWS! Build a wall around Antarctica!”
The Human Story Behind the Policy
Let me make this concrete.
Right now, somewhere in Somalia, there’s a family that has been displaced by drought. More than 1 million Somalis were displaced by drought in 2022, primarily within Somalia. They didn’t want to leave. They had land. They had history. They had a life.
The temperature went up. The rain stopped coming.
The crops failed.
The animals died.
They moved or they died.
In Pakistan, the 2022 floods displaced an estimated 8 million people and caused approximately $30 billion in damages.
Months later, thousands of Pakistanis were attempting to migrate to Europe - a boat carrying 350 Pakistanis capsized off Greece.
In Honduras and Guatemala, rising temperatures threaten jobs and livelihoods, combining with other factors to prompt people to move to cities, the United States, and other destinations.
These aren’t “environmental insurrectionists.”
These are humans trying to survive on a planet that’s changing faster than they can adapt.
What The Debate Has Actually Been About (Spoiler: Not Science)
Let’s be brutally honest, as promised.
The debate about climate change hasn’t been about science for a long time.
The science is clear as glass.
NASA, NOAA, Berkeley Earth, the UK Met Office, and Copernicus Climate Services all independently confirmed 2024 as the warmest year on record.
The debate has been about:
Money. Specifically, who gets it.
Oil companies want to keep making money from oil. Renewables threaten that. So they fund politicians. Politicians say what they’re paid to say. (See: Trump asking oil companies for a billion dollars and promising to do whatever they want.)
Control. Energy is power. Literally and figuratively.
Fear. Change is scary.
Admitting we broke something is scary.
Taking responsibility is scary.
Propaganda. The fossil fuel industry has spent decades perfecting the art of making you doubt what’s obvious.
But here’s the thing that makes me genuinely angry:
We’re arguing about whether the house is on fire while smoke is coming through the vents.
The Physics Don’t Care About Your Feelings
Let me explain this like I’m talking to someone who actually wants to understand:
What is a fossil fuel?
It’s ancient plant matter (mostly algae and microbes) that lived hundreds of millions of years ago when CO₂ levels were thousands of times higher than today. That plant life absorbed massive amounts of carbon. Then it died, got buried, and over millions of years, heat and pressure turned it into oil and gas.
It’s literally stored solar energy and carbon from an ancient atmosphere.
When we burn it, we release all that ancient carbon back into the atmosphere. In about 150 years, we’re releasing carbon that took millions of years to sequester.
Why does this matter?
Carbon dioxide traps heat. More CO₂ = more trapped heat = warmer planet. This isn’t controversial. This is thermodynamics. The greenhouse effect was discovered in the 1850s.
The planet doesn’t care if you “believe” in climate change.
Physics doesn’t care about your political affiliation.
Systems Over Events: The Pattern We’re Missing
Surface narrative: “Trump says dumb thing about weather”
Institutional blind spot: The entire political-media-fossil fuel complex is designed to keep us confused and arguing while the problem accelerates
The reframe: What’s the system that produces this outcome?
Fossil fuel companies fund politicians
Politicians shape policy and public discourse
Media amplifies controversy for engagement
Public gets confused by mixed messages
Nothing substantial changes
Climate continues warming
Consequences accumulate
Repeat
This isn’t about one president’s stupidity (though that doesn’t help).
It’s about a system that rewards short-term profit over long-term survival.
THE COMPREHENSIVE EDUCATION SECTION: For Those Who Want to Actually Understand
For the nerds, the engineers, the teachers, the professors, and everyone who knows that real understanding beats shallow certainty every single time.
Welcome.
You’re about to go deep.
Not because complexity is impressive, but because reality is connected at every scale, and understanding those connections is how you build actual knowledge instead of memorized talking points.
Part 1: The Dimensional Problem of Climate Denial
Let’s start where Trump’s brain stopped: weather vs. climate.
This isn’t semantics. This is dimensional thinking—the same framework from “The Point in Time or Space Where It All Begins.”
Weather = 2D thinking: What’s happening at this specific location at this specific time. “It’s cold in Texas, therefore global warming is fake.”
Climate = 3D thinking: What’s the long-term pattern across the entire system over decades. “The planet’s average temperature has increased 2.32°F since pre-industrial times, and the ten warmest years have all occurred in the last decade.”
Trump is a Square insisting the Sphere doesn’t exist because all he can see is the circular cross-section.
From his dimensional framework, he’s correct about what he observes.
The problem is his framework is insufficient to see what he’s looking at.
Part 2: Thermodynamics Doesn’t Care About Your Politics
Remember “Your Chemistry Teacher Lied to You”? Let’s apply that here.
The greenhouse effect isn’t a theory.
It’s thermodynamics.
Here’s how it works, no bullshit:
Step 1: Energy In
The sun emits electromagnetic radiation. Short wavelength (visible light, UV). High energy. This passes through the atmosphere relatively easily and heats Earth’s surface.
Step 2: Energy Out
Earth’s surface radiates heat back to space. Long wavelength (infrared). Lower energy. This is where CO₂ matters.
Step 3: The Trap
CO₂ molecules (and methane, water vapor, etc.) have a specific molecular structure that vibrates when hit by infrared radiation. This vibration absorbs the energy. The molecule re-emits it in a random direction—some goes to space, some comes back to Earth.
Net result: More CO₂ = more infrared gets bounced back = less energy escapes = planet heats up.
This is as certain as gravity. You can measure it in a lab. You can calculate it from quantum mechanics. You can observe it from satellites.
The physics doesn’t give a shit about your political affiliation.
Part 3: The Phase Transition We’re Actually In
Here’s where it gets interesting if you understand “Your Chemistry Teacher Lied to You.”
Earth’s climate isn’t static. It’s a dynamic system with phase transitions.
Think of it like water:
Ice Age = solid phase (cold, stable, slow changes)
Interglacial (what we’re in now) = liquid phase (warmer, more dynamic)
Hothouse Earth = gas phase (high energy, chaotic, rapid changes)
We’re currently pushing the system from “stable interglacial” toward “runaway hothouse.”
The scary part? Just like with supercritical CO₂, there are critical points where the system doesn’t gradually transition—it jumps to a new state.
Examples:
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) - the ocean conveyor belt that keeps Europe warm. It doesn’t slowly weaken—models show it could collapse relatively suddenly, like flipping a switch.
Arctic Sea Ice - reflects sunlight. When it melts, dark ocean absorbs heat instead. This creates a feedback loop: less ice → more heat absorption → melts more ice → more heat absorption. This isn’t linear. It accelerates.
Permafrost Thaw - frozen ground stores massive amounts of methane and CO₂. As it thaws, these gases release. More gases → more warming → more thaw. Another feedback loop.
These are phase transitions. The system doesn’t gradually slide from one state to another.
It reaches a threshold and reorganizes.
Part 4: The Energy Balance Sheet (What’s Actually Happening)
Let’s get quantitative because numbers matter.
Current CO₂ concentration: ~422 parts per million (ppm)
Pre-industrial CO₂: ~280 ppm
Rate of increase: ~2.5 ppm per year
Last time CO₂ was this high: Pliocene epoch, ~3 million years ago
Temperature then: 3°C warmer than today
Sea level then: 50-80 feet higher than today
We’re not just “a little warmer.” We’re replicating atmospheric conditions from an epoch when the planet’s energy balance was fundamentally different.
Current energy imbalance: Earth is absorbing about 0.8 watts per square meter more energy than it radiates to space.
Doesn’t sound like much?
Let’s scale it.
Earth’s surface area: 510 million km²
Total excess energy: 408 trillion watts
That’s the equivalent of detonating 400,000 Hiroshima bombs worth of energy EVERY DAY.
Where’s that energy going?
90% into oceans (heating them)
3% melting ice
1% warming land
~1% warming atmosphere
The oceans are Earth’s thermal battery. They’re absorbing most of the heat.
When they can’t absorb anymore, that energy goes into the atmosphere and we get catastrophic weather.
Part 5: The Polar Vortex Explained (Properly)
Trump’s “cold weather disproves warming” tweet reveals he doesn’t understand the polar vortex.
Let me fix that.
What it is:
A ring of fast-moving winds 10-30 miles up in the stratosphere, circling the North Pole.
Think of it as a fence keeping Arctic air contained up north.
What it does:
When strong and stable, cold Arctic air stays in the Arctic. When it weakens or “wobbles,” that fence breaks down and Arctic air spills south.
Why climate change affects it:
The Arctic is warming 3-4 times faster than the global average. This is called Arctic amplification.
Why? Several reasons:
Ice-albedo feedback: White ice reflects sunlight. Dark ocean absorbs it. Less ice = more absorption = more warming.
Changed atmospheric circulation: The temperature difference between Arctic and mid-latitudes drives the jet stream. Less difference = weaker jet stream = wavier pattern = cold air escapes south more often.
Translation: A warming Arctic makes extreme cold snaps in Texas more likely, not less.
It’s counterintuitive.
But thermodynamics doesn’t care about intuition.
Part 6: The Migration Mathematics (Why This Matters Practically)
Let’s connect this to human consequences using actual engineering analysis.
Water availability:
Agriculture requires ~500-2000mm of rainfall per year depending on crop.
Current projections: By 2050, regions supporting 1-2 billion people will see >20% decrease in water availability.
Heat stress:
Humans can’t survive sustained wet-bulb temperatures above ~35°C (95°F at 100% humidity). Our bodies can’t cool themselves.
Current projections: By 2070, parts of South Asia, Persian Gulf, and North Africa will regularly exceed this threshold.
Sea level rise:
Current rate: ~3.4mm per year, accelerating
By 2100: Likely 0.5-2 meters depending on ice sheet collapse
Population affected: 187-410 million people live in areas that will be below high tide line
Do the math:
187 million (conservative sea level rise)
200 million (water scarcity, World Bank estimate)
100 million (heat stress uninhabitability)
additional climate-driven conflicts, agricultural collapse, ecosystem collapse
You’re looking at 500 million to 1 billion people displaced by 2050-2100.
That’s not a political opinion.
That’s engineering projection based on thermodynamics, hydrology, and biology.
Part 7: The Systems View (Connecting Everything)
This is where “The Thermodynamics of Ubuntu” comes in: we’re all in this together because thermodynamics is non-negotiable.
The atmosphere is a common pool resource.
You can’t privatize it.
You can’t wall it off.
You can’t build borders high enough.
When Texas burns coal, the CO₂ goes into the atmosphere.
When India’s monsoons fail because of changed circulation patterns, millions move.
When Bangladesh floods, where do 160 million people go?
When the Sahel becomes uninhabitable, does Europe think it can just... not deal with migration?
Trump’s “America First” approach to climate is like being on a sinking ship and saying “my cabin first.”
The ship is Earth.
The water is thermodynamics.
Your nationalism is irrelevant to physics.
Part 8: The Rare Earth Minerals Connection
Let’s tie in “The Quiet Cold War of Space and Minerals.”
To transition away from fossil fuels requires:
Lithium (batteries)
Cobalt (batteries)
Rare earth elements (motors, generators, wind turbines)
Copper (electrical systems)
Silicon (solar panels)
Current problem: China controls 70% of rare earth processing, 80% of solar panel manufacturing, 60% of lithium processing.
The geopolitical trap:
We need these materials to decarbonize.
China controls the materials.
Trade wars with China = delayed transition.
Delayed transition = more warming.
More warming = more migration.
More migration = more political instability.
More instability = more trade wars.
It’s a systems loop.
Breaking it requires thinking dimensionally—seeing the connections between energy, materials, geopolitics, and thermodynamics.
You can’t solve climate with just technology.
Or just policy.
Or just markets.
You need systems thinking. That’s the whole point of the dimensional series.
Part 9: The Deep Time Perspective
From “When the Earth Shakes” and “When a River Dies Overnight”:
Earth has been through worse. Way worse.
Permian-Triassic extinction (252 million years ago):
Massive volcanic eruptions
CO₂ spike
Ocean acidification
96% of marine species extinct
70% of terrestrial species extinct
Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (56 million years ago):
Massive release of methane from ocean floor
Global temperature +5-8°C in ~20,000 years
Complete ecosystem reorganization
The difference:
Those events took thousands to millions of years.
We’re replicating similar CO₂ increases in ~200 years.
Evolution can adapt to gradual change over millennia. It cannot adapt to change happening faster than generational turnover.
We’re not going to kill Earth.
We’re going to kill the version of Earth that humans evolved to thrive on.
The planet will recover.
It always does.
In a few million years, new species will evolve to the new conditions.
We won’t be here to see it.
Part 10: The Actual Solutions (Engineering, Not Ideology)
Because education without actionable knowledge is just trivia.
Layer 1: Stop Making It Worse
Phase out fossil fuel subsidies ($600+ billion annually global)
Carbon pricing that reflects true cost (currently ~$80-100/ton to capture)
Transition to renewables where practical
Grid infrastructure overhaul (most grids are 50+ years old)
Layer 2: Adapt to What’s Already Baked In
Climate migration planning (it’s coming whether we prepare or not)
Infrastructure resilience (heat-resistant roads, flood barriers, water systems)
Agricultural adaptation (drought-resistant crops, changed growing zones)
Coastal managed retreat (some places can’t be saved, plan accordingly)
Layer 3: Active Intervention (Controversial But Necessary Discussion)
Direct air capture of CO₂ (currently ~$600/ton, needs to hit $100/ton)
Enhanced weathering (spread crushed basalt to absorb CO₂)
Ocean alkalinization (controversial, needs more research)
Solar radiation management (even more controversial, genuine unknown risks)
The engineering reality:
We need ALL of these.
Not one.
Not “the best one.”
All of them simultaneously.
Because we’re not just trying to stop warming.
We’re trying to avoid cascading system collapse while maintaining civilization for 8 billion people.
That’s not a liberal conspiracy.
That’s thermodynamics at planetary scale.
Part 11: Why the Debate Has Been So Stupid
Back to the document transcripts and the fossil fuel industry manipulation.
The playbook has been:
Manufacture doubt (tobacco industry strategy)
Fund alternative “experts” (people with degrees saying convenient things)
Amplify uncertainty (science is never 100% certain about anything)
Create false balance (media treating 3% of scientists as equal to 97%)
Delay policy (more study needed! Let’s not be hasty!)
Why it worked:
Because humans are bad at probabilistic thinking and good at tribal identity.
“My team says climate change is a hoax” is easier to process than
“The thermodynamic properties of CO₂ molecules create radiative forcing that increases atmospheric energy retention at a rate proportional to concentration increase.”
One is identity.
One is physics.
Physics doesn’t care about identity.
But politics does.
And money does.
And the fossil fuel industry has lots of money to spend on politics.
Part 12: The Personal Responsibility Trap
One last thing because it matters:
You will hear: “Individual action doesn’t matter, it’s all about corporations.”
You will also hear: “Individual action is everything, vote with your wallet.”
Both are incomplete.
The truth:
Systemic change requires political action (collective).
Political will requires cultural shift (individual → collective).
Cultural shift happens through individual choices becoming normalized.
Example:
Renewable energy was expensive and niche.
Early adopters paid premium for solar panels.
Economies of scale kicked in.
Now solar is cheapest energy source in most markets.
Your choices matter, but not the way you think.
You’re not “saving the planet” by recycling.
You’re participating in a cultural pattern that makes larger changes possible.
The Algorithm applies here:
Pay attention (understand the actual physics and systems)
Do your best (make choices aligned with reality, not ideology)
Pay it forward (make it easier for next person to make better choices)
That’s not hippie bullshit.
That’s how phase transitions happen in social systems.
Enough people change behavior → new normal → infrastructure adapts → system reorganizes.
Conclusion: The Education You Weren’t Supposed to Get
If you’ve made it this far, congratulations.
You now understand more about climate science, thermodynamics, systems thinking, and dimensional frameworks than most politicians.
You understand:
Why weather isn’t climate (dimensional thinking)
Why CO₂ traps heat (molecular physics)
Why feedback loops accelerate change (systems dynamics)
Why we’re headed for phase transitions (thermodynamics)
Why migration is inevitable (engineering projections)
Why the debate has been stupid (manufactured controversy)
Why individual and collective action both matter (cultural phase transitions)
What you do with that knowledge is up to you.
But now you can’t claim ignorance.
The thermodynamics of Ubuntu: we’re all in this together, because we’re all subject to the same physics, breathing the same atmosphere, on the same planet.
You can’t opt out of thermodynamics.
And you can’t tweet away the greenhouse effect.
Extended Reading (For the Truly Committed):
All linked articles in previous sections
IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (if you want the full scientific consensus)
“The Uninhabitable Earth” by David Wallace-Wells (for consequences)
“Drawdown” edited by Paul Hawken (for solutions)
Your own critical thinking applied to every source, including this one
Because education isn’t about believing the right things.
It’s about learning how to think.
What You Can Actually Do
Individual Level:
Understand the difference between weather and climate
Don’t let anyone gaslight you with cold snaps
Support politicians who understand basic science
Vote
Collective Level:
Demand grid infrastructure investment
Support renewable energy where it makes sense
Stop subsidizing fossil fuels
Prepare for climate migration (it’s coming)
Build resilience in your community
Reality Check: We’re already seeing the effects.
Climate-related hazards played a role in 26.4 million displacements in 2023.
That’s people.
Not statistics.
The Question We Should Be Asking
Not: “What happened to global warming?”
But: “What are we going to do when a billion people need to move?”
Because that’s coming. The science is clear.
The projections are there.
And we’re not ready.
Trump’s tweet isn’t just ignorant. It’s dangerous.
Because while we’re arguing about whether cold weather disproves warming, we’re not preparing for the actual consequences.
The planet will be fine. It’s been through worse. Ice ages. Asteroid impacts. Mass extinctions.
We might not be fine. That’s the part people miss.
Climate change isn’t an extinction event for Earth.
It’s a displacement event for civilization.
Sources & Further Reading:
NOAA 2024 Global Climate Report: https://www.noaa.gov/news/2024-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record
NASA 2024 Temperature Analysis: https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/2024-was-the-warmest-year-on-record-153806/
Polar Vortex & Climate Change (MIT): https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/polar-jet-stream-and-polar-vortex
Climate Migration Data (Migration Policy Institute): https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/climate-migration-101-explainer
World Bank Climate Migration Report: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/09/13/climate-change-could-force-216-million-people-to-migrate-within-their-own-countries-by-2050
All Hans’s previous articles on climate, energy, and systems thinking: https://hejon07.substack.com
Final Thought:
We’re all in this together, on one planet, breathing the same air, subject to the same physics.
You can’t drill your way out of thermodynamics.
You can’t tweet away the greenhouse effect.
And you can’t build a wall high enough to stop climate migration.
Pay attention. Do your best. Pay it forward.
That’s The Algorithm.
It’ll work now.
Don’t hate. Educate.
🪶Hans
P.S. - To the “environmental insurrectionists” Trump mentioned: Keep going. You’re on the right side of physics.
This makes more sense now? Huh.
